?100PingGods upset Virtus.pro (2-1) on Sunday in an extremely tight affair. Although it might be shocking seeing an underdog like 100PingGods win against one of the top-five teams in the world, it’s nothing unusual for a CIS regional tournament.

As mentioned before, regional CIS clashes are often much closer than expected, largely because most of the players have either played together at some point in their careers or have enough games between them to know where the other team’s weaknesses lie.

With that in mind, it doesn’t make much sense to have Spirit priced as low as they are, even though they’re clearly the better team. We’ll take the obvious value bet and side with 100PG to secure at least one map.

?Akuma lost their StarLadder CIS RMR 2021 opener against forZe (0-2) with 4-16 on Overpass and 18-22 on Inferno. It was a solid effort from the Ukrainian lineup, but it was obvious that they were the weaker team on the day.

Neimga Gaming suffered the same fate in their tournament opener, with a 1-2 loss to Gambit Esports. Despite losing, Nemiga deserve a lot of praise for putting on a show against the strongest team in the world.

They took the series lead with 16-14 on Inferno and executed an incredible comeback on Vertigo, where Nemiga trailed 5-10 after the first half, yet still managed to force overtime. Nemiga ended up losing that map and completely fell apart on Dust II (3-16), albeit they still came only a couple of rounds short of upsetting the world no.1 team.

A single good performance doesn’t mean much, but Nemiga are clearly the better team here. We usually try to avoid betting on the favourites in these regional derbies, but the quality gap is big enough for us to make an exception.

?Some of these betting odds seem to underestimate the underdogs, but we can’t complain. K23 are priced as high as $3.74 to defeat Virtus.pro, while you can back them at $1.93 with a map handicap.

That’s a generous offer considering Virtus.pro aren’t as good as the latest CS:GO betting odds would suggest. They might be ranked fifth in the world rankings, but the Russians traditionally struggle against weaker regional rivals.

Virtus.pro won this bout 2-0 back in May but have since lost to forZe, Entropiq, and Akuma. K23 with a map advantage is a no-brainer pick at this price.

?Natus Vincere are obviously better, but it’s not like they can’t lose. The offered odds seem a bit low given how volatile this tournament has been, so it does not make much sense to side with NaVi here.

ForZe will struggle to win since they lack the firepower of NaVi, but they have been playing well enough for us to believe that they can cause some damage. ForZe are 15-3 since the start of June, and while they haven’t faced any high-profile teams, it’s the momentum that counts.

ForZe should be capable of winning at least one map, but we don’t expect an upset victory. You can side with forZe at $1.81 with a map handicap, but there’s far more value with over 2.5 maps at $2.32.

?K23 and Virtus.pro will clash for the first time since May when Virtus.pro swept K23 2-0. VP have since played 14 games and won all but six. That run includes a 3-2 record from Intel Extreme Masters XVI – Summer, where the Russians finished in fifth-sixth place.

K23 were far less convincing with their showings. They are 7-5 across their last 12 outings against weaker opponents, with losses to ENCE, forZe, HYENAS, 100 PingGods, and NYRIKKI Esports.

Since this is a regional CIS derby, there’s a chance the bout will go down to the wire, mainly because these teams know each other well. However, with the form K23 have been showing of late, they’re just as likely to get swept as they’re to force a three-map series. Take the better odds on Virtus.pro to cover the map handicap.

?There’s a very good reason why Gambit Esports are priced as $1.26 favourites for this bout. Vladislav “nafany” Gorshkov and co. are undeniably the best CS:GO team in the world currently and strong candidates to win organisation’s second CS:GO Major championship title in November.

Even at $1.26, Gambit seem a bit underrated, even though these CIS derbies are usually much closer than expected. Much of it has to do with players and coaches knowing each other well, which somewhat nullifies any tactical advantage one team might have over the other.

BetOnline has teams priced at even money on map handicap, which makes it hard to pick a bet. You might want to shop around on other esports bookmakers for better odds, but we’re happy to take Gambit to cover the map handicap on Tuesday.