Kim “Stats” Dae-yeob and Shin “SHIN” Hee-beom last met in December 2023 during AfreecaTV Pro Series #22, where SHIN won 4-0. It marked his third head-to-head victory of the year and his eighth overall (8-13).

Stats has dominated SHIN since they first met in 2015, but he could not match his compatriot last year as the balance of power flipped. For this match, we also have to consider Stats’ poor record against Zerg players.

Protos vs Zerg is Stats’ worst matchup at a 58.60% win rate across 1,413 games. That number has dropped to just 12.5% over the last 16 games, which is highly concerning. In contrast, ZvP is SHIN’s best matchup, with a 60.24% all-time win rate and 76% over the last 50 fixtures.

Considering Stats’ performance metrics and recent head-to-head record against SHIN, it’s tough to justify a wager on him.

After placing 17th-20th and 21st-24th in his last two trips to Poland, Clément “Clem” Desplanches enters IEM Katowice 2024 as the second favourite to win the tournament, priced at $3.80 on the outright betting markets. That’s hardly surprising, considering Clem is the current ESL SC2 Masters champion and the second-ranked player on the European ESL Pro Tour 2023/24.

Li “Oliveira” Peinan hasn’t accomplished nearly as much as the French StarCraft II pro over the last few months, but he has left a good impression in bigger tournaments. More importantly, Olivera is 1-1 in the head-to-head against Clem on the year, with a 3-1 victory from WardiTV 2023.

Olivera’s victory against Clem two weeks ago isn’t something to ignore, but it doesn’t prove he is a better player. Clem is in excellent form and holds a 67.37% win rate against Terran players over the last 95 games, whereas Oliveira’s win rate in mirrored matchups sits at just 48.89%.

Oliveira is a solid player, but at the offered StarCraft II betting odds, Clem is a more appealing choice.

Lee “Bunny” Jae-seon and Kim “Stats” Dae-yeob have not met once since March 2021, when Bunny won his third consecutive head-to-head match and improved his all-time record to 7-9. It’s been nearly three years since, so those numbers mean nothing.

SCII betting sites have Stats priced as an underdog for this match, likely because he hasn’t played an official game since mid-December. On the other hand, Bunny has been active over the last month but hasn’t accomplished much, recently placing 15th-16th at Master’s Coliseum 7.

This match is much closer to 50/50 than it may seem. Stats has a decent record against Terran players, whereas Bunny has a 57.58% win rate against Protoss over the last 33 outings. At plus money, Stats is a much better choice.

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Koh “GuMiho” Byung-jae and Gabriel Raffaele “HeRoMaRinE” Segat have yet to meet in 2024 but have clashed four times last year. The latter won the first meeting at ESL Open Cup #167 Americas and lost the remaining three series 1-2, worsening the German’s all-time head-to-head record to 3-6.

GuMiho and HeRoMaRinE have not met once since May 2023, so the head-to-head figures might not hold as much weight. Still, GuMiho is in good form ahead of this clash and is fresh off a semifinal run at ESL Open Cup #212 Korea. HeRoMaRinE’s only notable accomplishment this year was finishing top four at ESL Open Cup #209 Europe.

Even at $1.60 with the top StarCraft II betting sites, GuMiho looks a bit undervalued. As such, GuMiho to cover the map handicap is worth a look.

Sasha “Scarlett” Hostyn has met with Yoon “trigger” Hong 14 times since their first clash in March 2021 and enters this match with a 10-1-3 head-to-head record. That includes two wins from 2023 at ESL Open Cup #172 Americas and HomeStory Cup XXIV at the start of December.

Form-wise, neither player has shown much ahead of Intel Extreme Masters Katowice 2024. Scarlett placed 19th-22nd at WardiTV 2023 at the start of January, whereas trigger’s most recent appearance at a Premier-tier event (Master’s Coliseum 7) ended with a 15th-16th finish.

Priced at $2.51 with esports betting sites, trigger is expected to struggle on Thursday. He hasn’t beaten Scarlett once since November 2022 and comes up against a player with a 61.8% all-time win rate in Zerg vs Protoss matchups.

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Clément “Clem” Desplanches and Joona “Serral” Sotala will cross swords on Friday in the ESL SC2 Masters 2023 Winter Europe upper-bracket semifinal, marking their seventh meeting of the year. Of the past six clashes, Serral has won all but two, including the more recent pair of games in September.

Considering his strong head-to-head record, it makes sense to see Serral priced as favourite with most esports betting sites. Serral is by far the highest-rated player on the European ESL Pro Tour 2023/24 standings, with 3080 points, 1713 points clear of Clem in second place.

The Finnish StarCraft II esports pro has already won ESL SC2 Masters 2023 Summer Europe and the main event, as well as AfreecaTV Champions Cup 2. So not only is Serral the best-performing European SCII player, but he is the most in-form player in the world.

Even though Clem has done relatively well across the last three meetings with Serral, the favourite to win with at least two maps to spare is an easy choice.

Riccardo “Reynor” Romiti finished the group stage with a perfect 3-0 record, and he hasn’t slowed down since, with wins against Kevin “Harstem” Koning and Nikita “SKillous” Gurevich. However, Reynor has dropped two maps against the Dutch player and one map against SKillous, which isn’t the best look.

Tobias “ShoWTimE” Sieber hasn’t looked much better so far, either. He dropped a series 0-2 against SKIllous during the group stage and showed some struggles against Max “MaxPax” C on Sunday. Still, while ShoWTimE hasn’t looked great, he has hardly shown less than Reynor.

The Italian Stallion has a 7-2 head-to-head record against the German in 2023, but the two have gone back and forth over their last three meetings and are 1-1 across the last two. It’s also important to note that ShoWTimE has a 66.7% win rate against Zerg players, so it’s not like he’s in a very disadvantageous position.

At the offered betting odds, backing ShoWTimE is a solid longshot bet. Alternatively, ShoWTimE at $2.62 with a +1.5 handicap is a good choice.

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Koh “GuMiho” Byung-jae enters the 2023 Global StarCraft II League Season 3: Code S knockout stage with a perfect 4-0 record, having won Group D in the first and Group A in the second stage of the tournament. Kim “Classic” Doh-woo, meanwhile, placed second in Group B in the last stage, yet the Protoss player is priced as a favourite in this matchup.

That is mainly due to Classic’s strong head-to-head record against GuMiho, whom he has beaten 12 times (12-4) this year. However, GuMiho has won against Classic three times since July, including a 2-0 result in their most recent meeting at the start of October.

Classic has a lousy 37.93% win rate against Terran players over the last 58 maps, whereas GuMiho has a 58.27% success rate in TvP matchups. So even though Classic has done well against GuMihio before, we prefer the outsider at the offered StarCraft II betting odds.

Kang “Solar” Min-soo and Park “Dark” Ryung-woo last met at the start of August, when Solar won his eighth head-to-head match of the year and third against Dark over the last six meetings. However, Solar is still 8-11 down in the head-to-head stakes in 2023.

This might explain why Dark is priced as the favourite for this match, but we would argue that the odds should be reversed. Solar has looked very good in the first two stages of the tournament, and he is historically a solid player in ZvZ matchups (66.88% all-time win rate). Moreover, Solar has won 80.85% of mirrored matchups over the last 47 games.

Dark is getting a lot of respect on the StarCraft II betting sites since he is higher rated than Solar. But that doesn’t mean that the 2023 GSL S2: Code S finalist will have an easy time on Thursday.

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Kim “Cure” Doh-wook and Kim “Stats” Dae-yeob have met 32 times since 2015, each winning 15 series and 39 maps. However, while their all-time head-to-head record is 50-50, Cure holds a perfect 6-0 record (12-0 in maps) against the 31-year-old veteran this year.

The strong head-to-head record explains why Cure is heavily favoured for this match, but we must also consider that Cure is in excellent form. He holds a 62.66% win rate across the last 233 games and is 65-34 against Protoss players. Stats has a 48.1% win rate across the last 54 games and an abysmal 36.84% win rate in PvT games.

Stats is never to be underestimated, but at the offered StarCraft II betting odds, we have to side with Cure to sweep Stats for the seventh time this year.

Lee “Bunny” Jae-seon is priced as a $1.30 favourite to defeat Jang “NightMare” Wook, which sounds fair considering Bunny is 3-0 against NightMare across their last three meetings. However, the two Korean SCII pros have not met once since November 2022, so that number doesn’t mean much.

NightMare’s best tournament placement was ninth–12th at the 2023 Global StarCraft II League Season 2: Code S, which isn’t too inspiring. However, Bunny hasn’t looked much better recently. He made the semifinals in GSL Season 1 Code S but then added two 13th–16th-place finishes at GSL Season 2 and ESL Summer.

The only thing going in Bunny’s favour is his strong record against Protoss players (57.14%), but even that is only slightly better than NightMare’s PvT record (55.71%). Bunny should be favoured, but not by that much. Value is with NightMare.

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Cho “Maru” Seong-ju has not lost against Jang “NightMare” Wook once (9-0) since 2015. That includes a perfect 4-0 head-to-head record this year and a 2-1 victory from last week at WardiTV Korean Royale Season 2.

Maru’s flawless record against NightMare explains why the 26-year-old is priced as such a big favourite for this match, on top of the fact that Maru is the current no.1 on the ESL Pro Tour 2023/24 Korea with 2145 points to his name.

Maru is the most successful Korean SCII esports pro player of the year and a back-to-back 2023 Global StarCraft II League: Code S champion. However, he failed to deliver at ESL SC2 Masters 2023 Summer (9th-12th), Gamers8 2023 (5th-8th), and Master’s Coliseum 6 (4th).

Even though Maru should win, NightMare has won a map in two of his last four meetings, making backing the outsider with a 2.5-map advantage at $2.25 hard to pass on.

Kim “herO” Joon-ho has met with Gabriel Raffaele “HeRoMaRinE” Segat twice this year. He lost the first clash (1-2) in May and got his revenge (2-1) last month during the Gamers8 2023 group stage. Tied at 1-1 on the year and 3-3 all-time, herO and HeRoMaRinE look evenly matched on paper, but that’s not entirely true.

HerO is the current no.9 on the ESL Pro Tour 2023/24, while HeRoMaRinE is ranked ninth on the European ladder, which is enough to prove herO is a better player. However, neither accomplished much this season.

HerO made the semifinals at Intel Extreme Masters Katowice 2023 in February but hasn’t placed higher than top six in the next six premier tournaments. HeRoMaRinE hasn’t finished top three in a single big event since DH SC2 Masters 2022 Valencia: Europe.

Even though herO is a better player, he hasn’t shown much more than the German, and HeRoMaRinE has a fairly solid record against Protoss players (74.55% win rate over the last 55 games). HerO will likely win, but we prefer the outsider with a map advantage.

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Kim “Cure” Doh-wook and Lee “Bunny” Jae-seon last met in the first round of ESL Open Cup #192 Korea just over a week ago, when Cure won 2-0, improving his head-to-head record to 13-8 and 32-21 in maps won since the Korean SCII esports pros first clashed in 2014. Unlike their last meeting, this match will be best-of-five (Bo5), but this won’t benefit Bunny.

The 28-year-old has an excellent record in mirrored matchups, with an 81.25% win rate across the last 16 games; however, it’s important to note that Bunny has played just nine TvT games since February. The only notable opponent he has beaten over that stretch was the current no.16 on the EPT KR ladder, Kim “Ryung” Dong-won.

Cure’s TvT record stands at 67.44% over the last 43 games, but he has managed that number while playing stronger opponents. Cure is also in excellent form, recently claiming silver medals from Gamers8 2023 and Master’s Coliseum 6.

Bunny hasn’t shown much recently, and he usually struggles against Cure, so we have to side with the favourite to get it done with at least two maps to spare.

Riccardo “Reynor” Romiti last met with Kang “Solar” Min-soo at the start of August during Gamers8 2023, when he won 2-1. The Italian previously won against Solar during HomeStory Cup XXIII (4-3) but lost their first meeting of the year in May (1-2) during Kung Fu Cup 2023 Weekly #5.

The two Zerg players are tied at ten wins apiece in all-time head-to-head, with Reynor holding a slight 35-33 lead in maps won. Reynor has won five of their last eight clashes but twice as Protoss, translating to a 3-3 record in ZvZ matchups since January 2022.

This explains why the StarCraft II betting sites have priced the two players at the same odds, but we like Reynor better. Solar is in excellent form (61.33% win rate over last 181 games) and is 80.49% in mirrored matchups, but he can be a bit more inconsistent than the Italian SCII pro.

Reynor looked shaky at Master’s Coliseum 6 a few weeks ago when he crashed out in the first round (9th-12th). However, that was the first tournament he hasn’t placed inside the top eight since 2022 GSL S3: Code S.

Over 4.5 maps at $2.50 with GG Bet isn’t a bad choice, as all of their last five meetings went the distance, but we prefer a straight bet on Reynor.

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Park “Dark” Ryung-woo and Kim “Stats” Dae-yeob will clash in the first round of Group C matches at Global StarCraft II League Season 1: Code S, marking their first meeting since 2020. Dark leads in the head-to-head with 20-9 in series and 61-43 in maps won and is one of the current top Korean StarCraft II esports players, so it’s hardly shocking to see him priced as the favourite.

It’s also important to note that Stats returned from a nearly two-year-long break from competitive SCII in February. Still, he has done well for himself since and is 3-2 from his last five outings, with wins against Jang “Creator” Hyun-woo and Sasha “Scarlett” Hostyn.

However, while Stats is not to be ignored, it’s hard to pass on backing Dark at the offered StarCraft II betting odds. The Swarm has had s a few slip-ups over the last month, but he is in excellent form and holds a 68.53% win rate in Zerg vs Protoss matchups.

Esports betting sites are paying $1.90 on Dark to cover the map handicap, which is great value.

Koh “GuMiho” Byung-jae has clashed thrice with Kim “Ryung” Dong-won this year and has won two series. That includes their last two meetings at WardiTV Korean Royale (2-1) on April 4 and during the 2023 GSL Season 1 Qualifier a few days later.

Considering GuMiho’s success against Ryung, it’s hardly shocking to see him priced as the favourite for the rematch, but $1.40 is way too pricey. GuMiho has won against Ryung twice over the last 30 days; however, both series were very close – so while he deserves to be viewed as the man to beat, anything below $1.90 doesn’t look right.

Based on what we’ve seen from Ryung and GuMiho this month, the two Korean SCII pro players should be priced much closer to even odds. The value is with Ryung.

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Cho “Maru” Seong-ju is the leading candidate to win the 2023 Global StarCraft II League Season 1: Code S, and it’s easy to see why. Since the turn of the year, Maru has finished second at Intel Extreme Masters Katowice 2023, PiG Sty Festival 3.0, and most recently at WardiTV Korean Royale.

On top of his success at major events, Martu has also won Korean Starcraft League #1, Korean Starcraft League #2, and Korean Starcraft League #4, showing exceptional form ahead of GSL. His next opponent, Jang “NightMare” Wook, has not achieved nearly as much and won just one event this season, the Universe Titan Cup Show Match #8 in March.

NightMare hasn’t accomplished much at major events, nor has he won against Maru once since their first meeting in 2015 (0-7). Still, he won a map against Maru at WardiTV Korean Royale in March, and has a decent record against Terran players, so perhaps the offered SCII betting odds underestimate him a bit.

Maru should win, but at $3.75 on GG Bet, the value is with NightMare with a map advantage.

Byun “ByuN” Hyun-woo and Park “DRG” Soo-ho have met only twice this season, and both series ended in ByuN winning (2-0, 2-1). The 29-year-old is 25-13 up in the head-to-head with a 55.91% map win rate (71-56), but more importantly, he has lost against DRG only twice since the start of 2022.

As the latest SCII betting odds suggest, ByuN should win, and it’s hard to argue with that. He regularly delivers against DRG and is very effective in Terran v Zerg matchups, with a 66.67% win rate over his last 69 TvZ games. DRG has a decent record against Zergs (60% over the last 35), but it’s hard to imagine DRG causing an upset on Tuesday.

Esports betting sites have ByuN priced at $2.25 to win without dropping a map — a generous offer that is hard to pass on.

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?Despite being two of the best StarCraft II esports players from their regions, Joona “Serral” Sotala and Jang “Creator” Hyun-woo will clash on Friday for only the third time ever. They first met in 2018, while their last meeting came at HomeStory Cup XXI in July 2022, when Serral won 2-0.

Given his success, it makes sense for esports betting sites to have Serral priced as the favourite for this affair, and even $1.12 doesn’t seem too crazy. Serral is one of the best SCII players in recent history, and he proved that with titles from IEM Katowice 2022, HomeStory Cup XXI, and TSL 9, which he added on top of a silver medal from TSL 8, and a top-three finish at DH Masters Atlanta.

Creator has not won a big tournament in years; however, he had a few strong showings in 2022, including a silver medal from 2022 Global StarCraft II League Season 1: Code S. Creator has also been far more active over the last month, so as much as this is Serral’s match to lose, Creator should be prepared to cause some damage.

We’re getting $1.50 on Creator to win at least one map, which is a solid offer. A smaller position on Creator with a 1.5-map handicap is also worth considering.

?Park “Dark” Ryung-woo and Clément “Clem” Desplanches last met just over a month ago at IEM Katowice 2023, when Dark won 2-0 and eliminated the French SCII pro from the group stage.

Clem has since attended four tournaments, including #PassionCraft Knockout which he won with an incredible 4-1 victory over Kim “Cure” Doh-wook in the finals. Dark was just as active recently and did well earlier this month at WardiTV Winter Championship 2023 NA Server Qualifier #1 and ESL Open Cup #166 Korea.

Since Dark beat Clem a month ago, it’s fair to say that he has a solid chance to win again, but the offered SCII betting odds overestimate him a bit. Clem is still an elite-level player who just happened to have a poor run in Katowice, so we wouldn’t overreact to that defeat.

Clem is an excellent value bet at the offered price.

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