?Group A of the 2023 Mid-Season Invitational play-in stage kicks off with a one-sided meeting between LoL Pro League (LPL) runners-up Bilibili Gaming and Liga Latinoamérica (LLA) champions Movistar R7.

Movistar R7 are priced ($15.00) as the least-likely team to qualify for the main stage, whereas Bilibili Gaming are the clear favourites ($1.05) to reach the next stage. The odds alone should be enough to show how this match will go.

LLA teams have never performed well on the international stage, and very rarely have they won against a team from a major region. One exception happened at the 2020 LoL World Championship, when Movistar R7 (as Rainbow7) won a series against LGD Gaming.

This is a David-and-Goliath type of match where the question is not whether Bilibili will win, but how they’ll do it. Esports betting sites have set the kill line at 13.5, which is a high number, but knowing that lesser teams often opt for a more aggressive composition as their only win condition, we expect a bloody affair.

?While the first match of Group A might not be interesting for those hoping for close series, this one might. Golden Guardians and GAM Esports look evenly matched talent-wise; however, even though GAM are priced shorter to win the tournament, they enter this series as underdogs.

This doesn’t mean much in the bigger picture, but it shows that people have more faith in GAM to produce a deeper run in the tournament. That’s not so shocking since Golden Guardians are a one-dimensional team and shouldn’t be priced as $1.57 favourites with LoL betting sites.

The only scenario where those odds would be somewhat fair is if Golden Guardians get to start on the blue side. But since we don’t know which team will start where, this seems more like a 50/50 series than anything else.

At plus money, there’s value in backing GAM Esports to come out on top. They hail from a strong region, and their early-game aggression could be the key to shutting down Golden Guardians, who rely way too much on gaining early leads.

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PSG Talon and DetonatioN FocusMe will clash in the first match of the Mid-Season Invitational 2023 play-in stage, which will feature a revamped format. And the most important change is no more best-of-one series, which could suggest that we’ll see fewer upsets.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that PSG Talon are guaranteed to win. Even though PSG Talon hail from a stronger region, DetonatioN FocusMe are by far the strongest Japanese LoL team and, overall, a very solid squad.

They have the players to compete on the international stage, and with the return of mid laner Lee “Aria” Ga-eul, DFM look better than ever. The offered LoL betting odds seem to be based more on the idea of how strong the Pacific Championship Series (PCS) is – and even though PCS is strong, the gap between the Pacific region and other minor leagues isn’t as large as it seems.

That, on top of the fact that the blue side is too strong in the current meta suggests that this could be a much closer series than the LoL betting odds suggest. Take over 2.5 maps at even money or better.

G2 Esports are arguably the strongest team from the League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC). Even though they’ve not won the LEC Spring title, they’ve shown a lot of good qualities over the season with good meta-read, strong team cohesion, and excellent individual talent.

G2 Esports slipped against MAD Lions in the LEC 2023 Spring Playoffs, but that doesn’t necessarily mean much. Their next opponents, LOUD, are a familiar name from other esports titles, but this will be the first time the Brazilian squad attends the MSI.

LOUD made their international debut at LoL World Championship 2022, where they finished 19th-20th; however, the CBLOL champions have since improved the roster, so their lack of success in October should be taken with a grain of salt. But can the new and improved LOUD stand up to G2?

This looks like a one-sided series on paper, but the blue-side advantage and LOUD’s aggression could make it a bit more interesting. The only way G2 Esports can lose is if they shoot themselves in the foot, but it’s not too crazy to believe that LOUD can win one map.

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?MiBR made a roster change in January when the team promoted academy player Felipe “insani” Yuji to replace Jhonatan “JOTA” Willian. They’ve since played just two official matches, against ATK (1-2) and Nouns Esports (2-1), with insani averaging a 0.94 performance rating.

Based on those results, MiBR likely won’t be any better with the 18-year-old, and it’s hard to believe they’ll improve on such short notice. And that is a problem since their opening match of IEM Katowice 2023 is against Ninjas in Pyjamas, who, while in poor form, are still a top-tier team.

Ninjas in Pyjamas have recently crashed out of BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2023 with just one win (1-3) against BIG, but they won a map in each of the remaining three series – against Natus Vincere (twice) and Astralis. We don’t expect NiP to do well in Poland, mainly because the roster consists of two new players, Danyyl “headtr1ck” Valitov and stand-in Kristian “k0nfig” Wienecke, but they shouldn’t struggle against MiBR.

?Team Spirit were last active in December, when they attended ESL Challenger League Season 43 Europe, performed relatively poorly (2-3), and ultimately lost the finals against SAW (1-3). Grayhound Gaming (former ORDER) are in a similar spot, with just four official games over the last two months and just one in January – a 2-1 victory against Rooster.

Both teams will enter this match rusty, which should translate to a scrappy affair, but that often favours the underdogs. Grayhound, on paper, look significantly weaker than Spirit, but the Russian squad haven’t won anything over the last few months.

We saw them beat Team Liquid at the Major, but Spirit have also struggled against weaker teams, including HEET, SAW, and Tricked Esports. They should still win, but Grayhound Gaming, with +6.5 round at $1.80, is too good to pass on.

Fnatic are still a bit of an enigma. This roster looks like it has the highest ceiling a Fnatic lineup has had in years, but we’ve only seen them compete in a couple of Big Events. They reached playoffs at Rio Major and then won Elisa Masters Espoo 2022 in November, which is promising; however, the Black & Orange still have a lot to prove.

Evil Geniuses enter IEM Katowice 2023 warmed up, having recently completed their run through BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2023, where they placed last with a 1-2 record. They won against Heroic in the tournament opener, but that was a fluke as it was established in the rematch.

Evil Geniuses aren’t good enough to compete at the highest level, and it would be a shock to see them win this match. Still, they should take advantage of rusty Fnatic and reach at least 11 rounds, so we’re taking over 26.5 total rounds.

?BIG and Complexity have yet to meet with their current lineups, but it’s not hard to understand why the German squad are $1.44 favourite for this fixture. Even though BIG didn’t impress at BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2023 (1-2), Complexity showed even less, with just one win against Evil Geniuses (1-2).

Complexity had a tougher group with FaZe Clan (0-2) and Team Liquid (0-2), but that’s no excuse for them to collect only 29 rounds across the two bouts. And it’s not the first time Complexity crumbled when faced with top-tier teams.

This is a best-of-one game, and BIG are not particularly strong, so there is a chance that Complexity will edge out a win. However, at even money, BIG to win with at least four rounds to spare sounds is the only right play.

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