MAD LIONS vs G2 ESPORTS LoL BETTING & MATCH DETAILS

MAD Lions and G2 Esports will clash in the League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC) 2023 Spring lower-bracket semifinal on Friday, April 21. It’ll mark their first meeting since the final week of the regular season when G2 Esports won with a 14k gold lead and 33-11 in kills.

Since then, MAD Lions have lost against Team Vitality (0-2) and defeated Fnatic (2-1) and Astralis (2-0) to secure a spot in the playoffs. On the other side, G2 Esports lost against KOI (1-2) in the opening round of LEC 2023 Spring Groups before beating SK Gaming (2-1) and KOI (2-1) in the rematch.

G2 Esports haven’t looked as clean in the LEC 2023 Spring Groups as expected, but besides their slip-up against KOI, they haven’t disappointed. MAD Lions, on the other side, have shown some flashes, but overall concerning performances. So even though they made it into the playoffs, it’s hardly surprising seeing esports betting sites pricing them as $4.50 underdogs.

Comparing the two teams, G2 Esports field much better players across all positions, have better performance stats, and play much more cohesively. Stat-wise, G2 Esports are ranked first in the league across every metric besides gold difference at 10 minutes (1030), whereas MAD average out at about third-fourth best stats across most stats.

And then there’s the eye test, which proves that G2 Esports play better League than MAD Lions. They aren’t as inconsistent and have a much stabler approach to their games – in contrast with MAD Lions, who often get a bit reckless once ahead, which has cost them wins this season.

Betting on clean sweep wins in the current meta is a bit scary due to how strong blue side is; however, even with that handicap, it’s hard to doubt G2 Esports and their chances to walk away from the series unharmed.

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?Team Heretic have managed just two wins over the first two weeks of the LEC 2023 Spring regular season, but that isn’t necessarily as bad as it sounds since they’re one of three other teams entering the final week with a 2-4 record. On the other hand, Astralis have won three games, and even though they lost their opening two fixtures last week, they rounded up their run with a huge victory against Team Vitality.

On paper, Astralis look only slightly better than Team Heretics, which might explain why esports betting sites have Astralis priced at $1.61 and Heretics at $2.20, but those numbers make no sense. Team Heretics might’ve won two games, but they’re arguably the worst team in the league.

Heretics have yet to show anything that would make us believe they can be competitive, and their complete lack of synergy makes it extremely hard to bet on them against any opponent. Astralis are by no means one of the leading LEC title contenders, but the head-to-head odds look way too generous.

?KOI lost against Astralis, MAD Lions, and Fnatic, but they also beat G2 Esports. Results like that don’t help with figuring out whether KOI are actually good, and as we enter the final week of the LEC 2023 Spring regular season, there’s still no clear answer.

Excel Esports have yet to find their footing, but things might change this week following a minor roster change, with mid laner Vincent “Vetheo” Berrié stepping down to make room for Felix “Abbedagge” Braun.

Abbedagge played his last professional LoL match at the end of 2022 with 100 Thieves, so it’s hard to judge how much of an impact he will have. But how things have been going for Excel and how weak their mid lane was, it can only go up.

Despite what the latest LoL esports betting odds suggest, this match has upset potential – not so much because Excel might do well, but because KOI are very inconsistent. At $2.67 with GG Bet, we’re ready to take a shot with Excel.

At the end of LEC 2023 Spring Week 2, Team Vitality lost against G2 Esports and Astralis, proving that the league is competitive and that Team Vitality aren’t untouchable. This is concerning from a betting perspective since it’s hard to justify betting on Vitality without fearing another upset.

Perhaps Team BDS winning here wouldn’t be that big of a shock since BDS are a very competitive team, and their 4-2 record confirms it. Team BDS’s only losses came against SK Gaming on the opening day of the regular season and G2 Esports in an extremely close match which could’ve easily gone the other way.

Team BDS, much like Astralis, are dangerous and will defeat anyone if given a chance. However, although still individually much weaker than Team Vitality, the Bees have yet to show their true power and are arguably not as synergised as BDS.

If Team Vitality play their game, Team BDS will struggle to win, but we haven’t seen enough from Vitality last week to back them at the offered odds. We’re taking Team BDS with a +6.5 kill advantage.

Fnatic are priced as $3.00 underdogs with the top League of Legends betting sites, which might make sense if we consider their showings throughout the season. But Fnatic won two games last week – against Team Heretics and KOI – and looked very good doing it.

We wouldn’t want to overreact to a couple of strong showings, but it’s easy to underestimate how much of a morale boost a two-game winning streak can have. Moreover, Fnatic had a solid draft in their recent wins, and if they can keep drafting like that, they might add a few more victories to their record.

MAD Lions still look like the better team, but they’ve not shown much this split (2-4). Also, we’re talking about a best-of-one game, making the offered LoL esports betting odds on Fnatic even tastier.

There’s no telling where Fnatic will go from this point or whether their 2-1 week was a fluke. Regardless, Fnatic should never be priced this high against MAD Lions. Value is with Martin “Rekkles” Larsson and his crew.

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MAD Lions went 1-2 in the first week of the LoL EMEA Championship 2023 Spring, with one victory against KOI and defeats against Team Vitality and Team BDS. While winning just one game in a super week isn’t great, we wouldn’t overreact since it was just the first week of a new split.

Astralis managed to pick up two wins last week against KOI and the reigning LEC champions G2 Esports. Unfortunately, they ended the week with a tough defeat against SK Gaming, but even in that loss, Astralis didn’t play badly and showed some excellent qualities, continuing what we already saw from them last split.

The LoL betting odds on this match suggest that MAD Lions are much stronger than Astralis, but we would disagree. This price seems to be set more based on the brand value than the team’s showings, and the eye test can prove that Astralis are currently playing better than MAD Lions.

Team Heretics didn’t get off to the start of the split they wished for. With a 0-3 record, they’re tied with Fnatic for last place, and even though they had a rough schedule, Heretics didn’t show anything inspiring in their losses against G2 Esports, KOI, and Team BDS.

Excel Esports won one game last week against the struggling Fnatic but then dropped two against Team Vitality and G2 Esports to round up Week 1 of LEC 2023 Spring with a 1-2 record. However, in their defence, Excel had to play Vitality and G2, the clear best teams in the league, so it’s hard to criticise them too much for those defeats.

But we’re not as concerned about what Excel did and didn’t show as we’re worried about Team Heretics and their unconvincing performances on the Rift. Marcin “Jankos” Jankowski is playing well, but he’s not getting any help from his teammates, so until we see a bit more cohesion, we’ll remain low on Heretics.

Esports betting sites have priced Excel at $1.72 to win, which looks generous. Even though we only got to see them play two elite teams and the disorganised Fnatic, Heretic’s synergy issues are enough to convince us that this is Excel Esports’ game to lose.

Fnatic are arguably the worst team in the league and after their LEC 2023 Spring Week 1 performance, they’ll need a miracle to bounce back and compete for top spots. But seeing Fnatic struggle isn’t too shocking, considering they replaced two players in the offseason and got a last-minute coach, giving the squad very little time to prepare.

Reportedly Fnatic are doing well in scrims but are unable to translate that to pro games, which is concerning since it suggests that this squad, for some reason, can’t deliver on stage.

Team BDS secured a 2-1 record last week, and they earned it. Their only loss came against SK Gaming on day one of the split, but BDS then picked up wins against MAD Lions and Team Heretics. This isn’t incredibly impressive, but at least Team BDS are winning games and making a strong case for themselves as a strong mid-table squad.

Fnatic have the talent to bounce back and perform at a solid level, but betting on in their current state isn’t the play. Team BDS aren’t a top-tier team, but they’re good, and undeniably good enough to hand Fnatic another crushing loss.

The reigning LEC champions are set to clash with KOI, who had a rough start to the split, going 1-2 over the first week of action. KOI first lost against Astralis, then bounced back against the disorganised Team Heretics, and then kneeled to MAD Lions.

Week 1 results rarely mean much, but KOI’s record, including last splits’, is not convincing. This is still a stacked team, but they’re not improving, which suggests that KOI might have already hit their ceiling. On the other side, G2 likely haven’t yet.

Once G2 Esports got their wheels spinning in LEC 2023 Winter, no team could stop them, and we expect them to be in the race for the LEC title again by the end of this split. G2 did lose against Astralis last week, but that was more Astralis taking advantage of the opportunities than G2 Esports playing poorly.

KOI are a solid team, and they’ll likely be in the race for LoL World Championship spot by the end of the season, but they’re not at G2 Esports’ level.

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Excel Esports kept their promise for LEC 2023 Winter of not finishing fifth, ending the split in last place with just one victory to their name (1-8). The disastrous showing led to the signing of new coach Jonas “Hidon” Vraa and support Dino “LIMIT” Tot.

Fnatic didn’t do any better in the first split of the season, finishing in ninth place and missing the playoffs for the first time in history. In a bid to find more traction, Fnatic replaced support Rúben “Rhuckz” Barbosa and top laner Martin “Wunder” Nordahl Hansen, who stepped down from the lineup to make room for academy players óscar “Oscarinin” Mu?oz Jiménez and Henk “Advienne” Reijenga.

The changes in both teams look promising, but it’s hard not to feel excited about Fnatic’s plan with their new top laner. With Oscarinin, we expect Fnatic to change up their gameplan and play through the mid and top lanes, which sounds like the right move knowing that Martin “Rekkles” Larsson is a self-sufficient ADC who prefers to play weak side.

With the changes, it’s tough to say how these teams will do this split, but Fnatic look to have a higher ceiling. If things fall into place, Fnatic should compete for a top-four finish, whereas Excel Esports – even with a more stable bottom lane – likely won’t be all that good this split.

These two teams had fantastic runs through LEC 2023 Winter. SK Gaming reached a bit further after upsetting Team Vitality in the final round of Winter Groups. Still, Team BDS proved they could be competitive, producing a handful of solid showings even against the LEC’s top teams.

Team BDS beat SK Gaming last time out, but it happened in the first week of the season, so that result doesn’t hold much value. Likewise, SK finishing the split higher doesn’t mean much in the greater picture since both teams looked good throughout the regular season.

Most esports betting sites have SK Gaming and Team BDS priced at equal odds, which sounds about right. However, BDS were a bit unlucky not to finish the season higher, and considering the improvement they’ve shown, we expect them to enter LEC 2023 Spring even stronger.

Team Vitality’s second attempt at forming a superteam and winning the LEC crown failed, so the Bees decided to double down on the idea and signed former Fnatic ADC Elias “Upset” Lipp. With that, Vitality formed one of the most stacked European LoL rosters we’ve seen in years, but elite talent doesn’t necessarily mean good results.

This is undeniably a very strong team and a legitimate title contender. Still, there’s also a question of clashing personalities, so it’s tough to determine their ceiling until we see Team Vitality in action.

MAD Lions didn’t make any roster moves ahead of LEC 2023 Spring, which is fine considering they reached the LEC 2023 Winter finals. Overall, the Lions had an amazing split, and the only thing stopping them from winning another title was G2 Esports being way too strong.

MAD Lions were stronger than Vitality last split, and not necessarily because the Bees had a weaker bottom side. So even with Upset joining the roster, we don’t expect the balance of power to change.

Astralis have replaced mid laner Oliver “Dajor” Ryppa with Adam “LIDER” Ilyasov, which looks a good move. LIDER won’t turn Astralis into LEC title contenders, but he is better than Dajor, so we can expect the Danish side to be just as good, if not better, than last split.

KOI kept their LoL roster intact, which isn’t too shocking following a third-place finish in LEC Winter. It might also be because it’s hard to find any good replacements in the middle of the season.

It’s important to note that KOI finished the regular season in seventh place with a 4-5 record and only made it so far in the playoffs because they beat SK Gaming and the disorganised Team Vitality in the group stage. So looking at their combined record, KOI went 6-6.

Astralis and KOI met on the final day of the LEC 2023 Winter regular season, when KOI won comfortably, but only because Emil “Larssen” Larsson had a free lane. So, if we remove KOI’s mid-lane advantage from the equation, then it’s hard to justify the odds on offer with most LoL betting sites.

On paper, Astralis are weaker than KOI, but not as weak as the odds suggest, so we’ll gladly take Astralis to cause an upset.

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Even though G2 Esports entered the LEC Winter split as the favourite with esports betting sites, there were some reservations about their roster, with three new players joining the roster following their disappointing run at LoL Worlds 2022. However, there appeared to be little cause for concern as the now 10-time LEC champions finished the split by winning six of their last seven matches while dropping three maps.

G2 Esports are the clear favourites to win the LEC Spring split at $1.90 with GG Bet, ahead of Team Vitality at $3.00 and MAD Lions at $8.50.

LEC Spring 2023 Top Tip: G2 Esports

We let G2 Esports slip through our fingers, thinking that the offseason changes would hurt G2’s chances of winning the LEC Winter split, but they made us look silly by dominating KOI and MAD Lions on their way to their 10th LEC title.

Martin “Yike” Sundelin, Steven “Hans sama” Liv, and Mihael “Mikyx” Mehle, G2’s new additions, all held their own, with Yike and Hans sama recording top-10 KDA’s across the LEC. With their first split behind them, we have no doubt that G2 will only improve heading into the spring split.

Considering how dominant G2 were throughout the group stage and playoffs, there isn’t one team in the LEC that can say they have the wood over the reigning LEC champions, as they defeated both KOI and MAD Lions in the playoffs.

Most LoL betting sites aren’t offering much value for G2 Esports, which are ticketed around the $1.80–$1.90 mark, but there doesn’t appear to be a team in the LEC that stands out as a clear threat to the reigning champions, so we will be backing them in to go back-to-back.

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In 2022, Upset was referred to as one of the most acclaimed ADCs in Europe. Despite this, the player faced some difficulty finding an organization to sign him as a starter in 2023.

Since the start of the year, Upset has remained on Fnatic’s bench after the team brought back veteran player Martin “Rekkles” Larsson. Fnatic finished in the bottom two last split, failing to reach the group stage.

Vitality, meanwhile, started off LEC Winter 2023 strong and held a 7-2 record, finishing the regular season in first place. However, they did not fare so well in the group stage; although Vitality beat Team Heretics 2-1, they lost their next two best-of-three series against SK Gaming and KOI.

Upset was a part of Fnatic’s lineup for two years and shone as one of the best marksmen in his class. He was among the top five in total kill share, KDA, early-game statistics, and kills during LEC Summer 2022, while he also ranked fourth in most significant average damage to champions per minute.

Due to the LEC following a different schedule from other leagues, roster changes in the esport are slightly more complex. Organizations need to take new players from an existing lineup or sign a free agent to boost their ranks.

With LEC Spring 2023 slated to begin March 11, Vitality will need to announce their roster moves soon.

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