Afreeca Freecs teammates Jun “TY” Tae Yang and Cho “Trap” Sung Ho will duke it out in the IntoTheAlphaX Pro Circuit 5 semi-finals on Wednesday, which will mark their third head-to-head bout of the year. TY came out ahead (3-2) in his most recent clash with Trap last month, yet he is still priced as an underdog for the rematch, and there is a good reason for that.

At $2.20, the StarCraft II esports bookmakers imply TY has a 45.5% chance of winning this best-of-five series, which is a bit too high in our book; a more realistic probability would sit around 27% at odds of $3.70. Although TY has shown good form of late, he is still fairly inefficient against Protoss (58.15%), whereas Trap’s best matchup is against Terran (62.12%).

We expected to see Trap priced closer to $1.35, making this a great value bet. However, we are chasing a higher payout with a bet on Trap to win with at least two maps to spare.

The second IntoTheAlphaX Pro Circuit 5 semi-final will see Lee “INnoVation” Shin Hyung clash with Joo “Zest” Sung-wook for the first time since February 6, when Zest won his 30th head-to-head bout (30-36) with 3-0.

INnoVation enters this match on the heels of a ninth-12th finish at IEM Katowice 2021, where he was eliminated by Won “PartinG” Lee Sak (1-3) in the first round of the playoffs. Although a solid placement, it can’t compare to Zest, who reached the grand finals but lost 2-4 against Riccardo “Reynor” Romiti.

Given Zest’s success at IEM Katowice, it is reasonable to see him favoured to win this match. We would go even so far as to say the odds are very generous. The real dreamers might want to consider a -1.5 handicap bet on Zest.

?INnoVation and Cure will clash on Wednesday for the first time since the former’s 3-1 win in October. That marked his 14th head-to-head victory of 2020 (14-6) and his 30th (30-10) since 2014.

INnoVation enters this match rightly priced as the favourite with StarCraft II betting sites, but we don’t expect to see a one-sided affair. INnoVation deserves some praise for his 4-3 record in his last seven outings – a run that includes a 4-1 win against Cho “Dream” Joong Hyuk on Monday – but we can’t look past Cure’s 12-1 record across the last week.

This should be a much closer bout than expected, and we would even go so far as to say Cure has a legitimate chance to cause an upset. A bet on Cure to win 2-1 might appeal to some, but we are taking the overs.

Lee “Rogue” Byeong Yeol and Park “Zoun” Han-sol will clash on Wednesday for the first time since October 2020, when Rogue won 3-0. That marked Rogue’s second head-to-head victory of the year and his third since 2014.

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Rogue has yet to lose against Zoun – hence the short odds – but he is in terrible shape. He has lost all but one of his last nine outings, whereas Zoun has won all but two in the same stretch.

Zoun has also beaten the likes of Joo “Zest” Sung Wook, Won “PartinG” Lee Sak and Park “Armani” Jin Hyuk across the last week and holds a 6-0 record against Zerg players since January. Zoun should not be priced above $2.20, making this an excellent value bet we can’t pass up. There might also be some value on Zoun with a map handicap if you can find odds of around $1.40 or better.

EPIC League Division 1

?After a shaky start to the tournament, Team Liquid have seemingly found their rhythm and now enter the penultimate day of the competition on a three-game winning streak. That run includes wins against Team Secret (2-0), Alliance (2-0) and OG (2-1).

Mudgolems had a decent start with 2-1 wins against Just Error and Team Nigma, but they have since cooled down and now enter the final week of the tournament on a four-game losing streak. They stole a map off Alliance (1-2) on Saturday, but that’s hardly worth celebrating.

We don’t see how mudgolems can stand up to Liquid in their current form. A 2-0 sweep is a realistic possibility, but the odds are high enough for us to settle for an outright bet on Liquid.

?Natus Vincere began their journey in the EPIC League with wins against Team Liquid, Just Error and Alliance, but they then went on to lose against OG, Team Nigma and Virtus.pro. Vikin.gg, meanwhile, have been very consistent throughout the tournament, winning all but one fixture.

The only issue we have with Vikin.gg is their tendency to drop maps. Regardless of that, they consistently outperform any team that stands in their way. The odds are not particularly high, but anything above $1.60 for the favourites is worth a bet.

?Alliance’s run through the EPIC League has been anything but praiseworthy. Nevertheless, they’re still the only team at the tournament who have bested Vikin.gg, so it’s fair to say Alliance are not to be written off entirely.

Virtus.pro enter this match with a very solid 5-2 record, but we were not too impressed with their recent performances against Vikin.gg (1-2), Team Liquid (1-2) and Natus Vincere (2-1).

Normally, we would side with Virtus.pro for this one, but Alliance look a bit overpriced. The Swedish side stole a map off Team Secret on Sunday, which is something only a handful of teams have managed to do this season. If that is any indication of their strength, we have no issues taking a shot on the outsiders.

IntoTheAlphaX Pro Circuit 4

?Lee “Rogue” Byeong Yeol and Kim “Cure” Doh Wook will clash in the IntoTheAlphaX Pro Circuit 4 semi-finals this Friday, which will mark their second meeting of the tournament. They previously met during the first group stage, where Rogue claimed a convincing 2-0 win that marked his fourth head-to-head victory since February.

After his commanding run through the first stage, Rogue went on to dominate in the second group stage, where he finished ahead of Shin “RagnaroK” Hee Bum, Lee Bunny Jae-seon and Park “Dark” Ryung-woo. Cure, on the other hand, had to settle for a runner-up finish in his group behind Cho “Trap” Sung Ho.

Even though Rogue is clearly in better shape, there is some value in siding with Cure to keep this match close. He forced Rogue to five maps (2-3) on Tuesday and not long ago swept Cho “Dream” Joong Hyuk, which leads us to believe he has more to offer than what the latest StarCraft II betting odds suggest.

DreamHack Masters Winter 2020: Oceania

?After a humiliating 0-2 loss against Renegades in the upper bracket, Chiefs Esports Club will now seek redemption against Avant Gaming, who lost their opening match of the tournament against ORDER (1-2).

Avant enter this match as heavy favourites over Chiefs, which is fair considering they have beaten their rival team in nine out of 11 maps played since June.

While these Oceanic CS:GO bouts are usually 50/50, there is nothing that would lead us to believe Chiefs can cause an upset here. The $1.98 on Avant to win 2-0 is a good price.

Esports multi bet tips for Friday, December 4