Army Geniuses last met with XERXIA during DPC Tour 1 Division II in February, when Rizki “Varizh” Varizh and his crew won 2-1. Army Geniuses have since not made a single roster change, whereas XERXIA replaced Philip “Karma丶” Torres with former TNC Predator carry Levi “YoungGod” Lagaret.

We’ve yet to see YoungGod play an official match for XERXIA; however, it’s fair to assume that XERXIA will look much better with a new number 1. They’ve already improved over the last two months and ended the DPC SEA 2023 Tour 2 Division II in second place, with just one defeat against BOOM Esports (0-2).

Army Geniuses are favoured to win, which makes sense since they spent the last tour in the upper division and performed well (4th). Still, beating XERXIA with YoungGod won’t come as easy. We prefer the outsiders with a map advantage.

Team SMG kicked off DPC SEA 2023 Tour 3 with a rough loss against Talon Esports, who defeated SMG 2-0 on Monday. But we can give SMG some slack for losing the game, considering Talon Esports are the strongest Dota 2 team from the region.

Their next opponents, Bleed Esports, won their opening game of the final DPC Tour against Execration (2-1), which is impressive and perhaps a good indication of what Bleed Esports’ new roster is capable of. After struggling in the second DPC Tour of the season, Bleed signed a new coach Rasmus “MISERY” Filipsen, who made the necessary changes for Bleed Esports to reach their full potential. Although it’s not wise to overreact to one good showing, Bleed look better than how they did last month.

This should be a close match, but based on what we saw on day one, siding with Bleed Esports at the offered Dota 2 betting odds makes the most sense.

Dota 2 esports betting sites have priced Talon Esports as $1.30 favourites to defeat Blacklist International, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Talon were by far the best team in the second DPC Tour of the year, which they won with a 7-0 record and a 14-3 map differential.

Blacklist International were far less successful and ended the second stage of the season with a 3-4 record and 8-9 in maps. To find more success, Blacklist International benched Nico “eyyou” Barcelon and brought in Dota 2 veteran Damien “kpii” Chok, forming one of the most stacked rosters in the region.

The raw talent on this roster makes Blacklist International a formidable opponent, and even though talent alone won’t win them games, it’s scary to bet against them. Fading Talon doesn’t look like the right play, but we’re getting $1.72 on Blacklist International with a map advantage, which is more than fair.

?More esports betting tips

?Execration will seek their first victory of DPC SEA Tour 2 Division I on Wednesday when they clash with Polaris Esports, who enter the match on a two-game losing streak with defeats against BOOM Esports (1-2) and Team SMG (1-2). But despite their recent slump, Polaris did well early in the season with wins against T1 (2-0) and Nigma Galaxy SEA (2-0).

Execration have yet to find any traction. Admittedly, they played well against Fnatic at the end of March but quickly returned to their old ways and suffered another 0-2 defeat against T1 last time out. Overall, Execration haven’t looked the best in either of their four series and come off as prime candidates to get relegated.

Polaris are better than Execration, but the teams share one similarity: they often draft poorly. Still, even if Polaris don’t nail the draft, they’re individually much better and should get the job done in straight maps.

?Nigma Galaxy SEA are 1-3, and their only victory was a walkover against BOOM Esports in the opening week. Compared to other teams in the region, Nigma fall in the same category as Execration as a squad that is highly likely to get relegated. Team SMG, on the other side, are an entirely different story.

Team SMG have suffered only one defeat so far, and even that came against T1 (2-0) at the end of March. They’ve since won against Polaris Esports (2-1) and Neon Esports (2-0), solidifying their status as one of the top three Dota 2 esports teams in the region. But their battle is far from over.

With Polaris Esports and BOOM Esports on their tail, Team SMG must collect every win they can to qualify for the major, and winning fixtures like this one is a must. That, however, should come easy, knowing that they’re facing Nigma Galaxy SEA, one of the weakest upper-division SEA Dota 2 esports teams, who have yet to show anything that would make us trust them.

?Nigma Galaxy SEA have been playing exceptionally well this tour and sit in the second spot with a 5-1 record with only one more round to go. Their only loss came against Polaris (1-2) last Saturday when Nigma got stomped in map three, but they were very fairly competitive across the first two maps.

Lilgun are 3-3, which puts them out of contention for a top-two finish, but they’re also safe from relegation. While they have managed only three wins, they’ve produced a couple of excellent showings recently, most notably last Friday, when Lilgun defeated Talon Esports 2-0.

We wouldn’t count on an upset, and you could make a case for Nigma Galaxy to win without dropping a map ($2.06). Still, Lilgun have shown enough for us to believe they can put up a fight and force Nigma to three maps.

?Neon Esports enter this match with full control of their fate; if they win, they’ll tie with Motivate.Trust Gaming and Execration, which will give them a chance to dodge relegation. MG.Trust, meanwhile, can lock themselves and Execration inside the top five with a win on Thursday.

Although both teams will want to win, it’s hard to say how this match will go, largely because of Neon Esports’ weird results. They took down T1 (2-1) at the start of the month, gave TNC Predator (0-2) their only win of the tour, and then stole a map from Team SMG (1-2).

But even though Neon have shown some decent performances over the last two weeks, we wouldn’t back them at the offered Dota 2 betting odds. Likewise, there is little value with MG.Trust at $1.72, knowing that they’re on a four-game losing streak.

Both teams need to win, so this bout could get messy. We wouldn’t be surprised by any result, but there’s a good chance we see a three-map series.

?Fnatic are 1-1 after two rounds of play, with a 0-2 defeat against Team SMG and a convincing 2-0 sweep of TNC Predator. Their next opponents, BOOM Esports, are billed as one of the top teams in the Southeast Asia region, but they have yet to prove whether they deserve to carry that tag.

Even though BOOM looked solid last Thursday against OB.Neon (2-0), winning against a team like OB.Neon is hardly an accomplishment. Regardless, BOOM still deserve respect as a stacked roster, even though we don’t know how good they actually are, whereas Fnatic have proven that they can play solid Dota 2, but we have yet to see them face strong opposition.

You could make a case for Fnatic to cause an upset, but even if they manage to do so, BOOM Esports won’t let them walk away unharmed. A bet on overs at $2.00 is the best choice in our book.

?Motivate.Trust Gaming are 2-0 after one week of play, with wins against Execration (2-0) and TNC Predator (2-0). But while MG.Trust are enjoying a solid start to the season, they have yet to be properly tested.

Team SMG won against Fnatic last Saturday (2-0) and went down against T1 (0-2) on Thursday, which isn’t that terrible since you can’t really blame them for losing against T1. Nevertheless, Team SMG are playing clean Dota 2, and it seems like replacing Damien “kpii” Chok with Ryan “Raging Potato” Jay Qui wasn’t a wrong decision after all.

The latest Dota 2 betting odds suggest this should be a close bout, which is a possibility; however, we like Team SMG better. We would go even so far as to say that SMG shouldn’t be priced much higher than $1.70

Team SMG parted ways with Damien “kpii” Chok last month, which might not seem like a big deal, but the departure of the Australian Dota 2 esports pro will be very noticeable. His replacement, Ryan “Raging Potato” Jay, is a solid player, but he is a sideways move at best.

Fnatic also made a couple of roster changes last month, replacing Ng “ChYuan” Kee Chyuan and Yang “Deth” Wu Heng with Jaunuel “Jaunuel” Arcilla and Armel Paul “Armel” Tabios, who should prove to be massive upgrades. Most importantly, the roster changes see Djardel Jicko B. “DJ” Mampusti return to the no.4 position, which is a big positive.

That won’t necessarily guarantee them success, but Fnatic deserves the tag as the second-strongest team in the region with their current roster. Meanwhile, we wouldn’t rank SMG higher fifth. Take the orange and black to get it done in two maps.

TNC Predator lost their opening match of the season, but it was against T1, so we shouldn’t overreact to that defeat. While it was a very one-sided affair, TNC should do better on Saturday.

Motivate.Trust Gaming started the new season with a convincing 2-0 win against Execration, proving that they belong in the upper division. However, one win doesn’t say much, and it’s hard to say how MG.Trust will do when faced with tougher opponents.

We have MG.Trust higher than TNC in our power rankings, but they don’t deserve to be priced at such low odds. TNC have enough experienced players and young talent to cause some damage, and they should be able to steal at least one map on Saturday.

?TNC Predator hit the reset button earlier this month and formed a new Dota 2 roster in a bid to become one of the top teams in the region once again. T1, meanwhile, have not made a single roster change this offseason and will instead build on their success from last term.

T1 enter the 2021/22 DPC season as the best-performing SEA team at The International 10. Nuengnara “23savage” Teeramahanon and his crew finished top eight and came only one map short of the top six.

T1 are clearly a solid team, whereas we don’t know what to expect from TNC Predator, who field a young and talented roster led by an experienced veteran and former coach, Kim “Febby” Yong-min. T1 should win, but these early-season matches are usually very messy and often produce upsets, which is why we’re placing a small wager on the outsiders with a map handicap.

?Motivate.Trust Gaming are one of the few teams in the region to have kept their roster intact since last season. Execration have taken a different route, adding Fernando “Nando” Mendoza and Jayquem “Kimizu” Gumalan as their new no.1 and no.3 respectively.

The return of Nando makes sense since he was a solid player during his stint at Execration from February to April this year, and there is a world where Kimizu proves he is an upgrade for Van Jerico “Van” Manalaysay. But while Execration have potential, that’s all they have until we see them in action.

Execration have done well against MG.Trust before and hold a 5-4 head-to-head record this year, but they haven’t won a single map across their last three meetings, and with the recent roster changes, their chances to change that on Wednesday seem slim. Motivate.Trust Gaming to win 2-0 and cover the line is a solid bet at the offered Dota 2 betting odds.

?
Omega Esports enter this match winless in their last eight outings. That record looks even worse when you consider that they haven’t really faced any top teams outside of TNC Predator.

Fnatic, on the other side, have managed to win six out of their last 10 outings, although eight of those bouts happened in March and earlier. To highlight just how inactive Fnatic have been this year, they’ve appeared in only three official matches since clinching the DPC SEA Season 1 title on February 24.

Fnatic undeniably have a more stacked roster than Omega, but we don’t feel comfortable betting on a team that has played only three games across the last nine weeks. The value is with the outsiders.

?
TNC Predator and BOOM Esports last met just under a month ago at Asia Pacific Predator League 2020/21 – APAC, where TNC won 1-0. That result put them 2-0 up in the head-to-head stakes for 2021 and took their record over the last six meetings to 2-1-3.

BOOM were the better team towards the end of 2020, but some key departures have left them looking a lot dangerous than they use to. While they are still performing well against weaker sides, they’re constantly being outclassed by the region’s top dogs.

It is hard to predict how TNC will do in any given match. They can play like a world-class team one month, only to disappoint the next. They seem to be in great form at the moment, however, having won all but one of their last nine series.

Considering how up-and-down TNC can be, it’s fair to doubt their ability to cover the map handicap, but at the offered price and with the form they’ve been showing, they’re worth a bet.

?Lilgun and Omega Esports will lock horns in the opening match of the tournament. It will mark their fourth meeting of the year, with Lilgun winning the first bout 2-0 but getting swept in the next two – most recently two weeks back at Asian New Bloom.

The odds on Omega might seem low, but it’s a fair price in our book. Lilgun haven’t shown anything of note for the last few weeks and enter this match on a five-game losing streak, whereas Omega have claimed two titles this year and come into this clash with four wins from their last five outings.

Omega are far from a top-tier SEA Dota 2 team, but they are playing well. They have beaten Lilgun before and seem to be very consistent against weaker teams, so we have to trust them to cover the map handicap.

TNC Predator enter this tournament with a lot to prove, having finished in fourth last season to miss out on the 2021 Singapore Major. Although it’s hard to argue TNC deserved to finish inside the top three in February, they would have made the cut had they not lost 0-2 to Execration in the tournament opener.

TNC went on to defeat Vice Esports, T1, BOOM Esports, and 496 Gaming, but they dropped the ball against Neon Esports and Fnatic. That was still better than Execration, who ended the season with a 1-5 run with their only other win coming against 496 Gaming.

TNC are 6-1 since the start of April, while Execration are 5-1 in the same stretch, albeit against slightly weaker opponents. Regardless, Execration seem to be in good form and should be able to force a tight series.

?496 Gaming and BOOM Esports will meet on Thursday for the first time since late October 2020, when they shook hands and parted ways with a 1-1 draw. That marked their fifth meeting of the year and their third consecutive head-to-head stalemate.

496 enter this match off a 2-0 win against Vice Esports and a narrow 1-2 loss against Neon Esports. BOOM have played only one game so far, losing 0-2 against Neon.

With their current roster, BOOM should win this match more times than not, but since they’re still a bit ring rusty, we have to side with their Vietnamese opponents. Over 2.5 maps is not a bad option either at a similar price.